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Ethereum in the eye of the storm – ETH analysis for May 15, 2024

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Ethereum is in relative calm ahead of fundamental ETF news. If the rejection of these new financial products seems integrated into the price, good news cannot be ruled out even though ETH is being abandoned by market players.

It is Wednesday, May 15, 2024 and Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $2,950.

Spot ETFs should be resolved next week in a process that ends on May 23 and 24 for Van Eck and Ark Invest. Rumors mention an equal probability between refusal and acceptance. However, the market is very pessimistic and the correction that is currently unfolding already seems to be factoring this bad news into the price action.

This state of affairs is good news for the bullish camp, since in the event of “surprise” acceptance “, price action could initiate an impulsive bullish recovery. Can we, even beyond the performance of ETH, see in this event the catalyst necessary to relaunch the bull market and/or an altseason? This is likely, because Ethereum remains the leader among altcoins despite the arrival of challengers like Solana.

Cryptoast Research: Don’t waste this bull run, surround yourself with experts

Calm in the derivatives markets

Pairs with Ethereum 24 hours 7 days 1 month
Ethereum/USDT +0.10% -3.20% -11.00%
Ethereum/Bitcoin -1.60% -3.70% -5.50%

The liquidity map shows scattered pockets accumulating primarily to the north, above the various downtrend highs.

In the short term, 2 terminals are formed. They could cause impulses in the event of:

  • upward crossing of $3,200;
  • downward crossing of $2,800.

Beyond that, prices could go south to the liquidity dating from February, starting with the $2,400 zone.

Liquidity Map for Ethereum

👉 How to easily buy Ethereum (ETH) in 2024?

On the derivatives side, it’s dead calm. Open interest has been lateralizing since mid-April and funding remains low.

Derivative Markets on Ethereum

State of Derivatives Markets on Ethereum

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Ethereum, the rebound or the plunge!

The disinterest around Ethereum in recent weeks is evident. The project, however, remains in an upward trend since the bear market lows made in June 2022. Price action has since delivered a performance of around 360%, with a local high at $4,000. To date, the progression after correction remains around 200%.

The bullish channel marking the primary bullish trend is approaching. The top of this channel has provoked positive reactions on 2 occasions, which does not exclude that it is once again a support for prices. Be careful however, reintegrating a channel generally leads to visiting the opposite terminal.

DOW on ETHDaily Ethereum price chart

The daily bearish trend on Ethereum has been established for several weeks and the asset continues to mark lower and lower highs. The lows seem to stabilize around $2,800, marking a descending right triangle compression figure. This pattern generally offers a bearish resolution.

The 20-week moving average was also crossed at the weekly close, putting the asset in a position of weakness in the short and medium term. Ethereum is slowly sliding into a danger zone.

We will probably have in the next 2 weeks a confirmation of this bearish bias, or on the contrary its invalidation. In the event of bearish confirmation, the targets bring prices to long-term trend supports between $2,400 and $1,900.

To invalidate the bearish direction in the medium term, ETH will have to convince by quickly regaining $3,400. This reconquest involves crossing the bearish oblique resistance and the 20-week moving average.

Ethereum vs USDT price chart

Ethereum price chart against USDT weekly

Regarding the relative strength of Ethereum vis-à-vis the rest of the market, the deviation scenario remains current. The weekly bullish divergence argues in favor of this scenario. However, it would be advisable not to go below the January 2021 close at the risk of invalidating the deviation and sinking lower towards the pivot of the 2021 bull run.

Ethereum vs. Bitcoin price chart

Weekly price chart of Ethereum against Bitcoin

Cryptoast Research: Don’t waste this bull run, surround yourself with experts

In summary, Ethereum ETH remains bullish and clean in its long-term construction. The daily trend has been downward since mid-April and the weekly is starting to deteriorate. Price action must quickly find a rebound to exceed and reestablish itself beyond $3,400 or risk continuing to sink towards long-term supports.

So, do you think ETH can already set off again towards a new price record? Don’t hesitate to give us your opinion in the comments.

Have a nice day and we’ll see you soon for another technical analysis.

Sources: Trading ViewCoinglass, Glassnode

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